There is a 4.6 percent likelihood that the Republicans will win every swing state other than Nevada, where Harris is currently leading by a very small margin, according to the model. In this scenario, the vice president would win 232 electoral college votes and Trump would win the presidency.

Polling pundit Nate Silver said his “gut” tells him that Donald Trump will win the presidential election. Silver, founder of the FiveThirtyEight polling analysis site, emphasized that his model has reduced the race between the Republican nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris to pretty much a 50-50 proposition.

C’mon, Nate, what’s your gut say?'” Silver wrote in the New York Times. “So OK, I’ll tell you. My gut says Donald Trump.”